Wuhan coronavirus

Coronavirus lockdown is WORKING: Graph gives major boost to UK as rate of infection slows
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1265692/coronavirus-lockdown-latest-uk-social-distancing-working-graph-daily-briefing

I'm not exactly sure we are out of the woods yet. I fear far from it. It has been two weeks since the start of the UK lockdown, and it got off to not the best start. I'd say it was about three days after the lockdown was announced that people started to take notice and properly lock down. There were still many that flouted this days after. So, for the sake of theory I'm going to assume the lockdown has been in place for 9 days instead of the actual 14 days.

*All of this is +-2 days or so. The numbers I have fudged (to maintain sanity) I have noted.
It takes 3-14 days for the incubation period. Lets assume 5-10 days.
It takes 3-6 days for the symptoms to show and at the end of the initial symptomatic period each case either; starts to get better, or, gets worse i.e. hospitalization (these are the numbers I am charting each day, hospital admissions and deaths.)
People are generally more contagious just before and as their symptoms start.

So, we have people that will have been infected right before the lockdown 9 days ago. They will have started showing symptoms 5 days ago to present and will continue to. Those that started 5 days ago, they will be recovering right now, or on their way to hospital. It takes x amount of time for them to get the test result and even longer for it to be added to the daily figures. I'd guess at a day from admission to the number being published. I suspect there are plenty of people out there unknowingly waiting for the symptoms to start. Family members of people that started showing symptoms 5 days ago. Everything is delayed with this virus, and thus has a knock on effect with the numbers. I think we are in for a surge in the next few days. I hope not, but you know when something looks too good to be true?

ETA: I found this image that shows what I was trying to explain with regard to the time scales of each virus stage:

The experts got it wrong on face masks
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/06/the-experts-got-it-wrong-on-face-masks/

Always seemed common sense to me.

Simomax wrote:

The experts got it wrong on face masks
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/06/the-experts-got-it-wrong-on-face-masks/

Always seemed common sense to me.

Yep, anything in the way helps, the finer the filtering the better. Frickin simples, basic 101 understanding of how shit works. There were loads of people arguing about the effectiveness of masks early on, like really arguing about it. I never understood it, not only was the ineffective argument wrong, it went against basic critical thinking.

I'm not sure what you can say about it.

Apart from yeah maybe why don't you toddle off to Covid ward with no PPE.

Never could decide if these argumentative people were just dumb trolls or shills.

(PS. Hope your back is a bit better now Also wonder if the dentistry worked out?)

mw0uzo wrote:

Yep, anything in the way helps, the finer the filtering the better. Frickin simples, basic 101 understanding of how shit works. There were loads of people arguing about the effectiveness of masks early on, like really arguing about it. I never understood it, not only was the ineffective argument wrong, it went against basic critical thinking.
I'm not sure what you can say about it.
Apart from yeah maybe why don't you toddle off to Covid ward with no PPE.
Never could decide if these argumentative people were just dumb trolls or shills.

I have a theory about this and other people have suggested the same. It goes something like this......
BoJo: "Right! Everyone get ready we are going to bumble about and drag our heals. We are going to make the people think we are right on the ball."
Minion to the dear leaders: "Sir, Mr Boris sir, the NHS are telling us they have no PPE, no masks, sir?"
BoJo: "Alright, lets see what we can do then... I know, I have a cunning plan, so cunning you could pin a tail on it and call it a fox!"
Minion: "Sir?"
BoJo: "Yes minion... We are going to tell the plebs that masks don't work, especially the good N95 ones. Then nobody will buy them and we can have them all for ourselves. Sounds good minion?"
Minion: "Yes, but sir they do work, if they didn't work Sir, our NHS staff wouldn't need them, right Sir?"
BoJo: "yes I know that minion, you know that, but our dear little plebs don't know that and within a day it will be all over facebook and people will be telling other people not to wear them. You see? Then we keep them all for us."
Minion: "But..but Sir....."
BoJo, "That's right minion. And that is why I lead the country and you don't."

So, ya, I think it was a decoy, a ploy, a crazy little plan hatched right on the table of our dear leaders. Maybe a little far fetched, but it's not something I wouldn't put past them.

Britain's coronavirus death toll could be 80% HIGHER than official figures show because of a delay in how fatalities are recorded - as ONS report finds the disease is responsible for one in 20 deaths a week
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8195259/Britains-coronavirus-death-toll-80-HIGHER-official-figures-lag.html
It is important to note that it can take as long as a few days for the death figures to catch up, and we will probably always be behind with the numbers.

And now another one....although he hasn't got it himself, yet, as we know....
Michael Gove self-isolating after relative shows symptoms of coronavirus
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/michael-gove-self-isolating-relative-shows-symptoms-coronavirus-12520841/

Japan declares state of emergency over coronavirus

Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has declared a month-long state of emergency in response to the coronavirus pandemic, and unveiled a record stimulus package aimed at steering the world’s third-largest economy through its biggest crisis since the war.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/japan-shinzo-abe-declares-state-of-emergency-over-coronavirus

'No change' in Boris Johnson's condition: PM remains in intensive care as it's revealed he needed four litres of oxygen after his breathing deteriorated in just hours and was hospitalised following video call that shocked Cabinet
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8193359/Boris-Johnson-taken-intensive-care.html
This really bothers me. This is the kind of thing that can cause the govt. to go full on draconian lockdown. If he dies, oh man, I hate to think what they will do, and same if he nearly dies.... "That's it! We can see this virus is very very really really dangerous, therefore it is complete lockdown, no exercise, 30 minutes shopping a week and that is it." They have already been talking about a further lockdown due to 'too many people exercising in parks and sunbathing' (even though social distancing legislation has been adhered to.)

Spain hit by horror new coronavirus death rates as figures make rapid U-turn
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1266042/Spain-coronavirus-latest-death-tolls-cases-update
I have been keeping an eye on the numbers here in the UK, as you probably know. One thing I have found is a couple of days numbers here or three days numbers there are no good. It is pointless trying to make a prediction with such a small data period. I'm starting to use the last five days now as a guide to the general trend. So it is pointless (save for scaring the nation) in publishing one day's numbers and stating "it's going to be catastrophic!"

Substation fire causes thousands of homes and businesses to lose power in Blackpool
https://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/lifestyle/homes-and-gardens/substation-fire-causes-thousands-homes-and-businesses-lose-power-blackpool-2531694
This is about 5 minutes from my home. The fire service haven't decided yet if it was deliberate or not although a spokesperson for Electricity North West said: “A fault at the local substation near Morrisons off Squires Gate Lane in Blackpool at 11.06am caused a power cut to 7,208 customers." I'm going to keep my eye on this the reason being that a lot of the substations around Blackpool are ~60 years old transformers installed in the 60's. As far as I know they have been maintained but when they were fitted years ago the electricity demand was much less than now so I'm wondering if it has been overloaded due to the number of people staying at home. A connection not 100% tight may have arced and then fire... I haven't heard anything from any electric companies stating they have capacity or not. Not a word. There is a small substation at the bottom of my road and man can you hear it hum at peak times, such as around 6pm. Lots more people have electric cookers/hobs/ovens these days and possible people are using them more during the day. I have already noticed a change in water pressure during the day and there is now lower pressures at the times they were not before, such as during the day when people were at work, showing the demand is much more. It will be interesting to see why the fire started because if it was caused due to load, then I think we will be seeing more of it. However, it could just be arson.

UK's coronavirus death toll jumps by record-high 854 in a day with 6,227 known victims

The death toll is almost double the 437 announced yesterday and marks a new low for Britain in its battle against the epidemic. Scientists have, in recent weeks, predicted that the peak of the outbreak would come at Easter, suggesting the nation is in for a turbulent seven days.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8196183/UKs-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-record-high-854-day-6-227-known-victims.html

I'll update my chart when the official numbers are out.